USD/INR attracts some buyers, RBI keeps repo rate unchanged

Indian rupee (INR) loses its recovery instigation on Friday amid persistent US Bone (USD) demand, which is most presumably from importers. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided by a 5 to 1 maturity to maintain the repo rate steady at the current position of 6.5%. The note remains firm following the RBI rate decision. Meanwhile, the rising geopolitical pressures in the Middle East and the upsurge in oil painting ply some pressure on the INR and lift the safe-haven currency might be limited by the RBI’s two-way FX intervention to keep the INR stable. Moving on, the US employment data will be due  subsequently  on Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Severance Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings for March. The US NFP figure is estimated to see 200K jobs added to the US frugality in March.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains weakened amid geopolitical pressures

RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said robust growth prospects allow the MPC enough room to concentrate on affectation and allow it to move towards the target of 4%. Monetary policy must continue to be laboriously disinflationary. RBI retained affectation cast at 4.5% for the current fiscal time, lower than 5.4% in the last fiscal. RBI’s Das stressed the need to be cautious about food prices, considering the anticipation of rising temperatures between April and June. He added that the impact of a reduction in energy prices on affectation will consolidate in the coming months. The Indian central bank estimated the real growth rate for the fiscal time 2024-25 at 7%. The CIA on Thursday reportedly advised Israel attacked Tehran’s consulate in Syria, killing two Iranian military leaders, per the Express. India’s HSBC Service PMI rose to 61.2 in March from 60.6 in February, better than request prospects.

Technical analysis: USD/INR prospects remain positive in the longer term

The Indian Rupee trades weaker on the day. The bullish station of USD/INR remains unchanged in the long term since the brace has risen above a nearly four-month-old descending trend channel since March 22. In the short term, USD/INR is above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the quotidian chart with the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) holding in bullish home around 65.0. This suggests that support zones are more likely to hold than to break. A break past a high of April 3 at 83.55 could pave the way to the next resistance at an each-time high of 83.70 en route to the 84.00 psychological round mark. On the west side, the first strike target will crop near a high of March 21 at 83.20. The implicit support position is located at the 83.00-83.50 zone (round mark, the 100-day EMA). A breach of this position could see a drop to a low of March 14 at 82.80.